Zimbabweans to starve until April 2010

By Renson Gasela SINCE the government embarked on the land reform in 2000, regardless of the amount of rainfall received, food production in Zimbabwe has been declining annually. For example, 2006/2007 was a good year in terms of rainfall but very little food was produced. It is important to look at the prospect of this season now so that proper planning can be done in time. Any continued planting of maize now should be discounted in looking at the incoming season. If such maize was to mature, that should be taken as bonus. There will be a continued shortage of food this year. It is likely to be on a much higher scale than last season. There has been a lot of talk about the ‘champion farmer’ programme where we have seen lots of distribution of so called inputs to supposedly many farmers across the country. We have been told that 500 000 ha were put under the programme and that this would produce 2 million tonnes of maize. We know for certain that while the maize seed required for the season is 50 000 tonnes, there was only 23 000 tonnes available with a further promised import of 5 000 tonnes. So, seed shortage militated against putting sufficient land under maize production. The hectares planted can only be a factor of seed availability. I know for certain that ‘champion farmers’ across the country got very small quantities of maize seed. While there is maize seed now available in shops, it came in rather late and it is not affordable particularly to small farmers who happen to be the main producers. Like everything, it is sold in foreign currency. There was no diesel for land preparation this season. The other seasons, farmers applied and got diesel at very low prices. The system was abused as some people who were not farmers were getting this diesel and selling it. Although this was not discontinued, there was no diesel for farmers at all throughout the planting season. A few of the ‘champion farmers’ were lucky to get a drum or so of diesel right at the beginning of the planting season. Those who were able to plant anything had to use coupons. To get coupons, one had to go to the illegal money market. This shows how unserious the country is with food requirements of the people. What this means is that in addition to seed shortage, the land could not be ploughed since there was no fuel. Total unavailability of fertilisers was much more acute than seed. Farmers planted without any basal fertilisers. In those areas where rainfall came in time, their crops are now in need of top dressing fertilisers. There is none available. A combination of unavailability of fuel, insufficient seed and absence of any form of fertilisers can only mean that the crop will be adversely affected. There will be massive food shortage this year. This is compounded by the rainfall pattern. Over the past week, I have covered the following districts throughout the country: Marondera, Mrewa, Chivu and Wedza (Mashonaland East); Chimanimani, Mutare, Mutasa, Nyanga, Buhera and Rusape (Manicaland); Chirumhanzu, Gweru, Shurugwi and Kwe Kwe (Midlands); Chegutu and Kadoma (Mashonaland West). I have also seen parts of Insiza (Matabeleland South) and UMguza (Matabeleland North). The situation on the ground as at beginning of January is that there have been good rains in the south of the country. Those who were able to plant have a good crop. The south in this regard includes Masvingo, Midlands, Matabeleland North and South. If rains continue up to March, many people will have at least some food to see them past winter. The whole of Manicaland, including districts such as Marondera and Wedza, is disastrous. In these areas, their first rainfall was during Christmas week. Farmers were still busy planting. The early maturing maize varieties take 120 days; by that time it will be too cool for maize. Only hot districts like Buhera, Chimanimani and Marange in Mutare district can still hope that if rains continue, what they planted during Christmas could yield something. The main maize producing districts in Mashonaland West and Central will be affected by lack of fuel, seed and fertilisers. This can be seen by the amount of land lying fallow. Manicaland and Mashonaland East are also big producers but they will have very little. The sum total of all this is that if rains continue up to the end of the season, I estimate that at best, maize produced will be less than 500 000 tonnes. This means a shortfall of 1.5million tonnes. There are two issues that need to be considered now. The first one is that the people of Zimbabwe will continue to starve until at least April, 2010. Nothing can be done to change this. The sooner this is realised, the better because plans need to be put in place now. The second issue is that to avoid a perpetuation of the food shortage and break this chain which has been going on since 2000, THERE IS NEED TO MAKE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PLANS FOR NEXT SEASON NOW. Of course, the above cannot be done by anybody since there is no government in this country. Politicians need to put the interest of the suffering people of Zimbabwe first; otherwise we could miss 2010 as well.